The UK Budget today, 22 April 2009, has just been announced. The economy is running at -3.5% growth and the UK is in a debt that will take many years to get out of. The current Labour Government reckons that we will be back on track by 2015. I fear that this is the latest in a long line of unsubstantiated predictions that have been entirely wrong. In fact it is the kind of behaviour that, if it were a prediction announced by an astrologer it would usually be entirely debunked by those who only deal in facts and are qualified to know better. And yet it appears that, despite their hopeless predictions, vehement protestations and eminent qualifications, it was only the astrologer that got it right. According to the well known French astrologer Andre Barbault (See my article ‘The Barbault Scale’), his method implies that we will already begin to know that the Government’s long term recovery is going rather badly wrong by 2014. But I get ahead of myself – we must go back a bit to see why.
In 2008 the Government spoke of an ‘economic downturn’. There would not be a recession, they said. The economists were a little more pessimistic and suggested that there might be the possibility of a recession. More popularly it was known as ‘the credit crunch’. As we all know now there is a recession of global proportions.
Andre Barbault’s mathematical calculation implied that 2009 was not going to be a good year and this would be the year, not 2008, when the world population would feel its impact. OK, there were banking institutions collapsing and financial houses crashing in 2008 but the global economy is governed by consumers, the little people, without which the financial houses would have no market. But the financial houses were not working to strengthen the consumer base – they got greedy instead and… well history will tell a better story than I. Suffice it to say that Barbault’s method appeared to link good and bad times with the effect that global problems had on global evolution; the system considers people more important than banks.
In the UK, the Labour Party’s left-wing governmental reign looks to be over; a general election is due anyway in 2010 at the latest. Even though their ideas (and that of most other Western Governments) of stimulating the economy are not out of line with lessons learned from the 1930s depression, they have been in power for over a decade and all the bright promises of a shiny new future lay in tatters. The right wing Conservative Party announced that they would start making cuts (so-called efficiency savings) almost immediately, whilst blaming the Labour Party for not ‘mending the roof while the sun shone’ in times of plenty (not an unreasonable point). If they were soon to be in power they could quite happily blame the Labour Party for all the pain suffered by the people – as if in some it would exonerate them from responsibility. They were also elected MPs when the crisis unfolded, so why did they not stop the world-wide financial crisis from occurring? However, they may yet want to be careful what they wish for because the next Government may have a much worse crisis to deal with.
In order to understand this article’s conclusions it is necessary to explain a little of Andre Barbault's Scale. Please note that the method is not astrology ‘per se’. I am making no interpretations or predictions in the traditional sense. This is merely a mathematical calculation obtainable from any Ephemeris on astronomical planetary positions.
“The outer planets of our solar system from Jupiter to Pluto are included in the calculation. Each planet moves at different speeds; for example, Jupiter takes 12 years to go around the Sun and Saturn takes around 29 years but Barbault’s method concerns the 20 years it takes between Jupiter and Saturn meeting to the point where they meet again. When two planets are in conjunction – the exact same degree in the zodiac – they are at zero degrees to each other. As the faster planet moves away from the other planet the degree of separation is counted as a plus number right up until the two planets are exactly opposite each other, which is +180. Just one degree later will see the faster planet returning to the slower one, and that turns the +180 into a minus figure, -179. This number reduces as the angle reduces until the two planets conjunct, thereby starting the cycle all over again. Barbault’s calculations look at the degrees of separation, away from or towards each planet in turn with all the others. That is to say the calculation is performed for a single point in time between the distances of Jupiter to Saturn, Jupiter to Uranus, Jupiter to Neptune, Jupiter to Pluto, Saturn to Uranus, Saturn to Neptune, Saturn to Pluto, Uranus to Neptune, Uranus to Pluto and finally Neptune to Pluto. My calculations were performed on New Years Day for each year from 1910 to 2030 (That can take a while). Once all the calculations have been made for any one point in time, the totals of plus and minus figures are added together.”
In general it appeared to work that good global conditions existed during years when the total balance was a plus figure; the higher the plus the better. If there were a string of plus years it appeared to indicate a sustained period of global well being. Minus figures depicted the exact opposite.
In 2009 the Barbault Scale year figure is ‘minus194’. It is not a terribly high minus figure, say compared to ‘minus 370’ and ‘minus 234’ in 1991 and 1992 respectively, when unemployment in the UK was much higher and homes were being repossessed unremittingly (you may wish to note the economic / political climate of your own countries during this time). Today there is growing unemployment and home repossessions again but not quite as bad as then. This sort of gives you an idea of what the Barbault Scale focuses on. The effect on the people appears to be more significant than what caused it.
I had looked at 2009 for a number of years; partly because I had a personal financial interest in planning my mid-term future and it appears that I made a pretty good decision. I didn’t know for sure if I was right at the time (in fact I can’t be sure even now but I still have other evidence to suggest that I can’t be completely wrong) but now that 2009 looks like unfolding just as I predicted, there is a warning for everyone to take notice of.
At some point in the future we will all have to pay for the money we spend today. I believe that it is right to repair the world financial system, even though I heartily disagree with the system itself. Having some system, however, is better than no system at all. In the UK we will host the Olympic Games in 2012 (a nice plus figure this year) but after the euphoria of the games, then the reality of the consequences we must face will bring us all down to earth. It sounds almost biblical but I believe we will face 7 years of hardship from 2014 – 2020. The worst of those years is 2017 with a figure of -496; the only times in the 20th century that there have been years of -496 and worse are 1915 and 1938 to 1941. And it is a sustained seven-year string of minus figures meaning that if there is any sign the recession is getting better by 2010, as I believe it will, it is merely the lull before the storm. I hope this gives you some sort of proportion as to what I believe we may be facing.
Can all this unpleasantness be avoided? No, I don’t think it can because the dye is cast and we must pay for the misjudgements of those in whom we trusted to keep our financial health in order. But I do believe that the effects can be mitigated by sound financial restraint balanced against the needs of the masses. The only problem, of course, is politics.
Back in the House of Commons the Conservative Leader accuses the Labour Chancellor of the Ex Chequer and the Prime Minister of presiding over the biggest budget deficit in UK history. He said that if the Government wasn’t prepared to make tough decisions now, it should make space for a party that could. Scary stuff. I believe, however, that the Labour Party could have made a better package, but knowing that it might not be in power for much longer doesn’t want to offer any advantage to the opposition.
Of course they knew that there would be a recession in 2009 even if they did not say so. And that is the point. We can no longer trust in this type of partisan politics. Denial for the sake of political point scoring is not desirable and may even deny the rest of us a window of opportunity to lessen the pain. The world is in need of some unity right now and if the rich countries can’t manage it, what hope is there for third world countries? It is time for leaders to quit playing political games and to consider seriously how they can best serve the people who elected them into office.
As for the everyday you and me – I offer you a stark warning. You have four years to pay your debts and review the life style you are accustomed to. Gone is the credit, must have now, culture. It is without doubt that the financial houses will get all moral on us and demand prompt payments on the pain of prompt penalties. Start to scale down your extravagances and put whatever money you have spare into whatever you consider the safest form of pension guarantees.
You don’t have to listen to me, of course. But what if I am right?
Just one final thought. Both World Wars of the 20th century were steeped in minus figures according to the Barbault Scale. During both periods there were enormous advances in technology. Will we therefore be seeing the first sentient robot before 2020? And what could advanced technology mean for our unskilled work force? Be ready for some pretty radical changes in the world.
May we all live long enough to see the prosperity of 2024 – 2029. Who knows, we might even see a little more peace.
Peace to you all.