Anomalies of History
by J. O. Quantaman
Angular separations between Venus and Mercury follow a recurring pattern over a cycle of forty years—14,610 days. Transitional periods separate two contrasting phases of the 40-year cycle. These six-year periods coincide with momentous cultural events, such as revolutions, social upheavals and technological breakthroughs. Transitional periods mark clear footprints on the path of human endeavors.
In this essay, I will put the 40-year cycle to rigorous statistical analysis. Once the existence of the 40-year cycle is shown, I will match the Transition periods with evolutionary events in the course of human history.
Geocentric
If you watch the night sky with binoculars, you will observe the geocentric positions of Venus and Mercury. From the perspective of earth, the angles of separation between them vary from zero degrees to 73 degrees.
Using published ephemerides, I recorded the daily Mercury-Venus separation angles from 1891 thru 2050. The results are documented annually in 160 Excel workbooks. They include 58,439 individual recordings. The individual workbooks as well as a summary workbook can be made available to those academics who care to confirm the primary data.
Mercury and Venus orbit at different speeds depending on their positions with respect to Sun. When they track behind the Sun, they move faster since their motions are added to the apparent motion of the Sun. When they pass before the Sun, they appear to move backwards for short periods. This backward motion is an illusion caused by our geocentric perspective. In astronomical jargon, backwards motion is called retrograde passage. Mercury goes retrograde about three times per year, whereas Venus goes retrograde once every year and a half. Their angular separations change rapidly whenever one of the planets goes retrograde, since the planet moving forward will leapfrog the planet in reverse.
There is a consistent pattern in the angular separations of these planets. For periods of 11 years, Venus and Mercury tend to range close together—less than 15 degrees of each other. Let us call these Near periods. Next there are periods of 17 years when Venus and Mercury tend to fall further apart—between 46 degrees and 73 degrees. Let us call these Far periods. Lastly, there are Transitional periods of 6 years sandwiched between the Near and Far periods. Eleven years plus seventeen years plus two 6-year Transitional periods add up to 40 years.
The table below sums the angular separations of Mercury and Venus for the years 1902-12 & 1942-52 & 1982-92 & 2022-32.
NEAR PERIODS (44 YEARS)
0-14 degrees 4,760 29.6%
16-44 degress 7,405 46.1%
46-73 degrees 3,369 21.0%
13 or 45 degrees 538 3.3%
The table below sums the angular separations of Mercury and Venus for the years 1891-95 & 1919-35 & 1959-75 & 1999-2015 & 1939-2050.
FAR PERIODS (68 YEARS)
0-14 degrees 5,266 21.2%
16-44 degress 12,233 49.3%
46-73 degrees 4,785 27.3%
13 or 45 degrees 552 2.3%
The percentage deviation may seem small, but it represents a significant difference in the behaviors of angular separation between Mercury and Venus.
During the Near periods, Mercury and Venus will hug each other like young lovers for two or three months at a stretch. They will separate out to 15 degrees or 25 degrees only to resume close contact once again. On the rare occasions when max separations occur, the planets will split apart as far as 71 degrees or 73 degrees.
During the Far periods, Mercury and Venus will exchange places more frequently, with Venus leading the way, then Mercury leading the way. They may go from 65 degrees to zero degrees two or three times in the same year.
The difference of behavior is so distinctive that ancient astronomers must have noticed. The 40-year cycle may have been one of the reference points used by early astronomers to determine the length of the year, which was a major preoccupation of ancient cultures. With accurate knowledge for the length of the year, high priests could predict the best times to plant and harvest crops and to prepare for spring floods. The Babylonians, Egyptians and Mayans used 360 as a 1st-guess for the seasonal year. Later they added five extra days. The Egyptians advised Julius Caesar to add a 6th-day every four years. This proved a great boon for the Romans whose calendar strayed by more the 60 days from the seasons. The Julian calendar worked fine for 15 centuries until Pope Gregory XIII shifted the calendar 13 days and then devised a scheme for skipping the leap year once per century, except for certain centuries according to a complex rule of thumb. This calendar (with minor revisions) is still used today, and astronomers have gauged the seasonal year at 365.242191 days.
Heliocentric
The heliocentric behaviors of Mercury and Venus follow the true orbital positions of the inner planets. Imagine you are looking straight down on the plane of the Earth’s orbit around Sun and from a great distance directly above the Sun. For each orbit of Earth, Mercury travels about four orbits around the Sun, whereas Venus travels 1.6 orbits around the Sun. Venus and Mercury catch each another every four or five months. During these connections, the Earth may be joined with the inner planets or directly opposite them on the other side of the Sun, or ranging at any angle before or after them.
To see why this is important, consider the analogy of a baseball game. Imagine home plate is the place of the Sun. The inner planets occupy the infield while the outfield represents the viewpoint from Earth. The batter hits a hard bouncer toward the 2nd-baseman, who jogs to his right to fields the grounder. Meanwhile the baserunner scampers from 1st-base to 2nd-base. The catcher at the heliocentric perspective sees the baserunner crossing before 2nd-baseman. At the same moment, the left fielder observes the same play from a geocentric perspective. He watches the runner advancing toward 2nd-base, while the 2nd-baseman fields the ground ball on the outfield grass. The left fielder sees the runner and 2nd-baseman separated by a fair distance.
If the sun is at zero degrees when Mercury and Venus are joined, both inner planets will go retrograde at the same time. The duration of joining will appear longer when viewed from earth.
If the sun is at 90 degrees from a Mercury-Venus connection, the inner planets will appear to hang loosely apart between 10 degrees and 20 degrees, until they pass before or behind the sun when they reconnect.
Angular relationships of Earth to the inner planets are crucial to the 40-year cycle. I have extended the heliocentric study another 40 years into the past. Below you will see a graph of the daily separations of Venus-Earth during the Near periods covering the years 1851-2050, when Mercury and Venus are within 9 degrees of each other. The recorded periods are 1862-72 & 1902-12 & 1942-52 & 1982-92 & 2022-32.
This Graph appears in PDF file at
[ http://www.psignologic.net/history.html ]
Click on the History tab.
You will see the Venus-Earth separations concentrating around zero, 90 and 180 degrees.
During the Near period, the Venus-Earth separations cluster around zero degrees, 90 degrees and 180 degrees. This graph will look almost identical to the graph of Mercury-Earth separations, since both samples would be taken when Mercury and Venus are close together.
Below is a graph of the Venus-Earth daily separations during Far periods covering the years 1851-2050, when Mercury and Venus are within 9 degrees of each other. The recorded periods are 1851-1855 & 1879-1895 & 1919-1935 & 1959-1975 & 1999-2015 & 2039-2050.
This Graph appears in PDF file at
[ http://www.psignologic.net/history.html ]
Click on the History tab.
You will see the Venus-Earth separations concentrating around 45 and 135 degrees.
During the Far periods, the Earth-Venus angular separations cluster around 45 degrees and 135 degrees while avoiding those separations common for the Near periods.
If sun is at 45 degrees or 135 degrees during Mercury-Venus connection, bizarre changes in perspective may take place. Mercury and Venus may exchange lead positions, waver between close contact to spreading far apart, only to reverse the process. Heliocentric behaviors account for the differences in geocentric actions of Mercury and Venus.
The 200-year span of heliocentric recordings confirms statistically the Mercury-Venus aspect cycle of 40 years. Determining the exact length of the cycle requires a solution of the N-body problem, which I will leave to someone with a better grasp of celestial mechanics. Nonetheless I believe the orbital period of Earth must be intertwined with harmonic behaviors of the two inner planets. Still, it would be nice to have someone with astrodynamic expertise confirm my suspicions. Once confirmed, the 40-year cycle might be extended far into the past and projected far into the future. It would be interesting to match epochal events in ancient history to the Transition periods. If someone reading this report is interested in collaborating, please contact me—
[ timer.axionet.com ]
Without expert confirmation I must rely on statistical evaluations alone. Therefore I am reluctant to extend the 40-year cycle more than 75 years beyond the 200 years that have been meticulously recorded.
The 6-year Transitional periods are of special interest to historians.
Below you will see a graph of Venus-Earth daily separations covering the years 1851-2050, when Mercury and Venus are within 9 degrees of each other. The recorded periods are 1856-61 & 1873-78 & 1896-1901 & 1913-18 & 1936-41 & 1953-58 & 1976-81 & 1993-98 & 2016-21 & 2033-38.
This Graph appears in PDF file at
[ http://www.psignologic.net/ ]
Click on the History tab.
You will see the Venus-Earth separations avoid zero, 45, 90, 135 and 180 degrees, as if Venus and Mercury are in a TRANSITION between two distinct patterns.
During the Transition periods, the Earth-Venus separations avoid the zero-degree, 90-degree, 180-degree maximums of the Near periods. They also avoid the 45 degree and 135 degree maximums of the Far periods. Indeed they are migrating between the Near and Far distributions.
1776 to present encompasses an era of remarkable technological development. Intercity travel that once required in horse-drawn carriages is now accomplished in high-speed trains or jet aircraft. People who once lived in small villages now live in sprawling metropolitan regions. Life expectancy has doubled wherever there is access to good nutrition and regular hygiene. Social customs have multiplied and grown more sophisticated. Justice systems in prosperous nations have become less corrupt and more sophisticated. The volume of world trade has multiplied many times over, while personal expectations and attitudes have changed dramatically.
Transitional periods of the 40-year cycle coincide with major developments on many cultural levels.
Here is a listing for easy reference.
1776-1781 > Near (11 years)
1793-1798 > Far (17 years)
1816-1821 > Near (11 years)
1833-1838 > Far (17 years)
1856-1861 > Near (11 years)
1873-1878 > Far (17 years)
1896-1901 > Near (11 years)
1913-1918 > Far (17 years)
1936-1941 > Near (11 years)
1953-1958 > Far (17 years)
1976-1981 > Near (11 years)
1993-1998 > Far (17 years)
1776-1781 (American Revolution)
American Revolutionary War was waged between frontier colonists and absentee British overlords. The conflict began as a disagreement over arbitrary taxation. The colonists succeeded in their rebellion and went on to establish a democratic republic that ignored the birthright entitlements of the Old World. The American Constitution has proven to be workable and long-lasting. It features a clever balance of powers.
Technological developments included the inventions of the breech-loading rifle, threshing machine and circular saw.
1793-1798 (Consequences of the French Revolution)
European aristocrats watched in horror as heads rolled under the guillotine. For outsiders, the French Revolution was a dangerous boil on the status quo. Foreign opposition plus anarchy within France allowed a young army officer to fill the void. Napoleon entered the stage as savior of the nation. His brilliant military victories gave Frenchmen a sense of national pride. His troopers were promoted on the basis of merit. Common folk benefited from the new regime without realizing they had replaced one tyrant with another. On the upside, Napoleon gave the world a decent measuring system that could be understood by beggars as easily as the tutored gentry.
Mary Wollstonecraft published the Vindication of the Rights of Women, which brought feminine voices to light.
Technological development included the inventions of cotton gin, ball bearings and the hydraulic press.
1816-1821 (South American Liberation)
Simón Bolivar liberated Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador. Guatemala, Panama and Santo Domingo declared their independence from Spain. The nations of South and Central America became junior partners instead of mere cash cows. However the plight of indigenous folk didn't change. They continued to labor for minimal wages at the mines and plantations of European immigrants.
Britain banned the trading of human slaves and established the West Africa Squadron to intercept ships carrying slaves to North and South America.
Technological developments included the inventions of electric telegraph, caffeine and Stirling-cycle engine.
1833-1838 (Britain outlaws Slavery)
While the slave trade had been discouraged by European nations, slavery itself was still widely practiced until the Emancipation Bill passed British Parliament. A few years later, Trinidad became the 1st-British colony to grant freedom to former slaves.
Technological developments included the inventions of automatic revolving cylinder gun, naval steam ram, steam shovel, combine harvester, electric motor and Charles Babbage’s "difference" machine.
1856-1861 (USA stumbles into Civil War)
While Europeans discouraged slavery, they continued to practice colonial oppression for its economic benefits. Slave labor triggered many ethical questions and polarized two cultural traditions in the USA. John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry was one of many incidents that led to the Civil War between the North and South.
Technological developments included the inventions of the burglar alarm, magneto-electric lighthouse and the seismometer.
1873-1878 (Fossil-Fueled Trains & Factories)
The 2nd-Industrial revolution brought marginal economic prosperity to the common folk of Europe and North America. Then the financial crisis of 1873 spawned widespread economic depression. Nations reacted by raising tariffs which only exasperated the problem. European nations brought their turf wars to the continent of Africa. They wrangled over territories that promised valuable resources and cheap labor. Great numbers of the poor Europeans sought greener pastures in the "new" worlds of America and Australia.
After attaining independence, the Pacific island of Franceville became the first self-governing nation to practice universal suffrage regardless of sex or race.
Technologic developments triggered more modest increases in economic output, yet these innovations paved the way for the next century’s adaptation of electricity. The inventions included barbed wire, electric candle, grain silo, four-stroke internal combustion (Otto cycle), the electric motor, hydrofoil craft, the tubular steel bridge, electric dental drill (battery powered), mimeograph and the telephone.
1896-1901 (Women Fight to Vote, Electric Age)
The major powers continued their endless disputes and warfare, including the Sino-Japanese War, the Boer War, the Spanish-American War and the Boxer Rebellion. Nonetheless the first modern Olympiad was staged in Athens, while the Commonwealth of Australia was established by British Parliament. Ever since, this nation of castaways and criminals has been in the forefront of cultural evolution. Australia has incorporated democratic milestones before other "civilized" nations.
Carrie Chapman Catt succeeded Susan B. Anthony as president of the National Women’s Suffrage Association. Women's groups yearned to join the public debate. When the crusades against obscenity began, feminists supported the formation of the American Puritan Alliance. In this case, their celebrity brought mixed results, for it reinforced the stereotype of women as silly fuss-budgets.
Technological developments included the discovery of electrons and the inventions of solid rubber tires, 4-cylinder car motor, remote-controlled model boat, RDX (explosive), typewriter, tape-recorder, alkaline storage cells, photo-electric cell and reliable submarines. Nikola Tesla’s alternating-current dynamos gained wide acceptance, replacing Edison’s direct-current systems.
1913-1918 (Trench Warfare, Russian Revolution)
WW1 was the bloodiest to date. The rank & file in the trenches experienced atrocious conditions. Although not affected directly, most civilians suffered from enforced rationing of many staples. Women had to fill-in for men who were away on the battlefields. This experience would embolden women to demand the right to vote in the years following the debacle. As well, the rank & file began to question their high-born leaders. Socialism and shop unions would spring forth after the war.
Russia fared badly in the WW1. Civil war in broke out between Reds (Bolsheviks) and Whites after the Czar was executed. Fair-minded idealists lost ground to hard-line pragmatists. Much later with Stalin’s consent, former Czarist autocrats weaseled into the revolutionary command structure. Russians found themselves oppressed by the same old gang spouting new slogans and sporting a new style of clothes.
Technological developments included the construction of Panama Canal and the inventions of the biplane, hydraulic hoist, stainless steel, assembly-line manufacturing, quantum theory, aluminum foil, multiprop heavy bomber, battle tank, water-cooled machinegun and mustard gas.
1936-1941 (Nazism & Fascism, WW2 Starts)
Hitler had been Chancellor of Germany for three years. He had passed the Nuremburg Laws scapegoating Jews and gypsies, and had already established a death camp at Dachau. Next, Germany occupied the Rhineland, annexed Austria and tested German air power during Spanish civil war, then gobbled half of Czechoslovakia. Japan invaded China, while Italy broke ties with the League of Nations. Only the brain-dead could have missed the signs of war. But Europeans were still dazed from the last war and punch-drunk from years of financial crises and economic turmoil.
Germany invaded Poland, then surmounted the Maginot Line with 20 hang gliders, gobbled half of France and chased the British back to their island. WW2 caused far more havoc among civilians and noncombatants. Several cities were carpet-bombed to near extinction. National borders dissolved while the Axis empires grew and shrank. Nine million humans died in Germany’s death camps. For the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, death came with a blinding flash.
Meanwhile in the India subcontinent, Mahatma Gandhi was demonstrating the power of non-cooperation and peaceful resistance. Fresh from the successful Salt March, Gandhi exposed the hypocrisy of the British who held a tight reign on their colonial subjects while exhorting the same subjects to join the struggle against the Nazis. Gandhi was imprisoned during the war, but he was freed and would live to see his homeland gain independence. His method of peaceful demonstration has been copied and emulated hundreds of times since—by Martin Luther King, by velvet revolutionaries, by the instigators of Arab Spring. The "Occupy Wall Street" movement follows the same script. Peaceful demonstration has become the default method for grass-roots defiance against entrenched and often unjust rulers.
Technological developments during WW2 paved the way for rampant consumerism, after peace was secured. The inventions included VHF television, vinyl polymers, electro-mechanical calculator, jet engine, helicopter, offshore oil well, radio telescope, pressurized high-altitude airliner, ejection seat, fluorescent lighting, color television, nuclear fission, nylon, DDT and FM radio.
1953-1958 (Television Brings Home the World)
USA had emerged from WWII with 90% of the world’s wealth. It wisely aided the global recovery efforts of both allies and opponents, including Germany and Japan. Europeans surprised everyone when their governments, which had been at each other’s throats for 1,600 years, agreed to share a common market for coal and steel, and later agreed to eliminate most trade barriers.
The standoff (East against West) at the Korean DMZ symbolized the state of global politics. Red China had shrugged off the last vestiges of Western meddling and emerged as USSR’s junior partner. The development of atomic warheads aka hydrogen bombs presented military strategists with a thorny dilemma. An escalated nuclear exchange threatened the destruction of civilization, so the horror of "mutually assured destruction" became the mantra of the times. East and West squared off nose-to-nose in what would be dubbed the Cold War.
The fledging UN survived its 1st-test as a forum of peace and diplomacy, while the new media of television showed the dramatic images of important global events to viewers in developed countries. Despite or because of the looming specter of nuclear holocaust, consumers rushed out to buy the latest gizmos. The middle class surfed a wave of optimism and bought zillions of labor-saving devices.
The technological developments included the discoveries of DNA and RNA as well as the inventions of nuclear-powered submarines, human growth hormone, transistor radios, computer memory, hovercraft, air-to-air guided missiles, transoceanic telephone cables, ultrasound, polio vaccine, Sputnik (paving the road for comsats), rotary-blade lawnmower and the hula-hoop.
Rocket-like fins on Detroit’s automobiles lampooned the dawn of the Space Age.
1976-1981 (Integrated Circuits & Infotech)
The Green Revolution in agriculture encouraged farmers around the world to buy fertilizer, pesticides and high-yield seeds. The proponents of "progressive" monoculture promised endless increases in crop yields. Fishers around the world utilized better nets and winches and caught fish in record numbers. Consumers of developed nations thrived amidst a cornucopia of conveniences. They expected a future of unlimited abundance.
Meanwhile, the largest oil providers formed the OPEC cartel. OPEC limited production levels, which led to dramatic rises in oil prices that in turn bred runaway monetary inflation. Western leaders bemoaned the "take-no-prisoners" approach of the Middle East oil barons. To add salt to the wounds, supertankers ran afoul in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, spreading lethal oil slicks. Consumers were forced to rely on credit to save face and keep pace. Scientists began to document the hazardous effects of pollution in the environment. Social pundits warned that population growth could result in shortages for both rich and poor.
In China the Gang of Four was ousted. The new leadership embraced science and technology, setting the country on the road to becoming a major economic power. Iraqi troops crossed the Iranian border, starting the Iraq-Iran War. Soviets launched a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan.
The Supreme Court of the USA ruled that blacks and other minorities would be entitled to retroactive job seniority. "Liberated" women demanded equal status, equal leverage and free choice regarding childbirth. Their struggle set off a controversy that continues to the present.
Technological developments included the inventions of solar-powered boats, supercomputers, neutron bombs, the space shuttle (reusable LEO orbiter), telephonic fiberoptic cables, ABS brakes, electronic typewriters, maglev high-speed trains, test-tube babies, satellite navigator (prototype GPS), CMOS (modern computer architecture) and Dolby sound systems. NTT launched a fully automated cellular network for commercial usage in Japan.
1993-1998 (Internet, World Wide Web, Social Media)
Microsoft’s introduction of Windows 95 made personal computers a viable option for the majority of non-geek consumers. Commercial venders discovered the marketing possibilities of the World Wide Web. This enterprise was aided and abetted by the advent of Digital Versatile Discs (DVD), high capacity Hard Drives, Liquid Crystal Displays, fiberoptic modems with superfast online access.
The global haul of fish from the oceans reached its peak and then began a gradual decline. Higher costs of fertilizers and overuse of fresh water reserves slowed the gains in agriculture production. World feedstocks shrank while hungry mouths continued to multiply. Misguided policies to grow crops for fuel gave cars more priority than 3rd-world hunger.
Communications (aka the Internet) guaranteed the monitoring of events anywhere on the planet. Social networking via online forums would lead to global nexuses such as Facebook and Twitter, and instant text-messaging polls.
This didn’t stop tyrants from abusing their citizens, but it brought human rights' violations into the open for the world community to scrutinize. Unfortunately, sympathy proved cheaper than direct intervention. The UN commanded no standing army and was obliged to ask member nations for troops and equipment. Hence, the world community sat on its hands while 800,000 Tutsis and their Hutu sympathizers were hacked to death in a frenzied display of genocide. UN diplomats contended themselves with sending formal protests to the power-mad rulers of Myanmar, Sudan, North Korea, Zimbabwe, Somalia and elsewhere. Taliban marched into Kabul and brought 90% of Afghanistan under its control.
On a more optimistic note, the world community limited the use of aerosols that were depleting the O-zone layer. However, the damage was longterm, and WHO warned of more casualties from eye damage and skin cancer. Europeans launched the European Community (EC) and made plans to admit former East-Block nations. Astronomers thanked their lucky stars, for the Galileo spacecraft was well positioned to watch the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 crash into the Jovian atmosphere. Cassini–Huygens was launched from earth on a 7-year interplanetary voyage to Saturn.
Summary
The Transitional periods coincide with pivotal events of the past 225 years. The span covers many scientific discoveries and technological wonders. With longer lifespans and greater creature comforts, there have been tremendous social changes. Democracy has progressed from a fledging idea to a regular pageant. Laws have multiplied and grown evermore complex. In order to participate in contemporary society, youngsters need specialized skills beyond simple literacy and common sense arithmetic. Hence, education has become synonymous with standardized classroom curriculums that have brushed aside the clumsy efforts of parents. Travel has gone from hiking and horseback to comfy seats on high-speed trains, aboard jet airplanes and via cars speeding across asphalt highways.
Folks enjoy longer and healthier lives with leisure opportunities galore. Yet only one-third of the world’s population has access to the latest conveniences and techno windfalls. Another one-third strives like mad to achieve parity, while the rest grasp for a few hand-me-downs and little else. Some 3rd-world farmers are worse off than they were 200 years ago, since climate change has turned once-fertile fields into parched deserts and has prodded millions of rural folks to end up as urban beggars.
The midpoints between Transition periods advance in increments of 17 and 23 years. 17 years have elapsed between 1978-1979 and 1995-1996, and 23 years will have elapsed between 1995-1996 and 2018-2019.
Do not confuse the Transition periods with 20-year generational epochs that have been coined with capricious names like Baby Boomers, Gen-X and so on. Such names have more to do with media fads, product branding and the comfort of common conventions. Everyone wants to feel at home with the prevailing culture, but deeper truths are often lost in the hoopla and feedback. Folks seldom anticipate the next war until soldiers are marching to the battlefield in lockstep.
Everyone receives a steady influx global news via the plethora of media links. But witnessing from afar and experiencing firsthand are not the same. Too often, people feel powerless to influence news-worthy events. They feel disconnected from political leaders who should be taking decisive actions. Democracy has become more of a pageant than a vital exercise. Layers of hierarchy and channeled detours (aka voicemail and helpdesks) make it difficult, if not impossible, for someone on the ground floor to connect with anyone at the top.
New modes of media have brought the world into everyone’s den. Yet I wonder how the dirt farmers of Malawi feel when they see the reruns of North American sitcoms. They must feel like beggars with their noses on the outside glass of 5-star restaurants.
Individuals may debate the complexities of global policies, but they have little meaningful sway in the outcomes. With TV remotes in hand, folks soon become immune to the trials and sufferings of others. Their attitudes never get beyond personal concerns and familiar neighborhoods. Disregard for things foreign or alien epitomizes the silent majority. "Not in my backyard" is the common refrain. The lulling effect of commercial media only exasperates our personal alienation. Democratic input becomes an oxymoron when governments scale up to service millions or billions.
More disturbing, competition among vendors doesn't always serve the best interests of consumers. A handful of providers hawk wares that are essentially identical and often mediocre. Disposable throwaways consume energy and then bloat the transient dump sites. The long-term consequences are swamped amidst the tidal wave of ad campaigns that encourage short-term convenience and ignore true functionality or durability.
The Lens of Time
Transitional periods cover but 30% of the years under study, yet they pack a powerful punch. The stew pot that simmers for many years suddenly comes to a boil, causing humans to get off their behinds and accomplish great deeds, for good or ill.
Near and Far periods represent 70% of the 40-year cycles. Many worthwhile events occur during these periods. They include conflicts, cultural advances and scientific breakthroughs. But the evidence suggests that events during Near and Far periods tend to be subdued. In some cases the events have a muted impact on the thrust of cultural evolution. Human aspirations tend to simmer until a Transitional period is reached, then the cover blows off the pot. Many scientific breakthroughs are not recognized for their potential value. For one reason or another, the benefit does not mesh with the cultural milieu to which it’s presented. Leonardo da Vinci’s helicopter sketch had to wait 500 years and a different cultural mindset before the sketch became an airborne prototype.
Near and Far periods are not the subjects of this essay, so I can only offer vague suggestions. During the Near periods, socio-economic advances tend to be plodding and tentative, yet productive. During the Near period of 1902-12, Australia extended voting rights for women to all of its provinces and territories. As well, parliament enacted the Conciliation and Arbitration Act, which recognized trade unions and established a sensible framework for settling labor disputes. At the time, other nations found this legislation controversial. It would take two world wars before the UN drafted its white paper on Human Rights, extending similar democratic principles across the globe.
During Far periods, economic progress tends to be volatile and speculative, while institutions and individuals tend to bite off more than they can chew. The meteoric rise and fall of Napoleon happened during a Far period. Another Far period encompassed the Roaring 20’s followed by the stock market crash of 1929. More recently, we have witnessed the DOT-COM boom and bust as well as the financial crisis of 2008.
I haven’t a clue why events unfold differently at different times. Maybe the 40-year cycle is a fluke or mere coincidence. On the other hand, the 40-year cycle may prove a valuable tool for policymakers if the phenomena can be better understood. With enough wisdom the 40-year cycle might aid us in tackling a gravest issues of our times—climate change and global disparity. We should be able to prosper without ruining our natural heritage. We should be able to diffuse terrorism with knowledge rather than smart bombs.
The significance of cultural change becomes clearer as we look back farther in time. Folks who live in the present must choose among a host of competing ideas without knowing which will prove successful in the future. Historians have the bonus of hindsight. They know beforehand which socioeconomic policies will survive the test of time. They can focus on the "winners" of any given epoch. "Winners" tend to stand out with greater clarity, while "losers" fade into the background buzz. Time itself separates the wheat from the chaff.
One question remains. What is the exact length of the 40-year cycle? That question requires someone with more astrodynamic expertise than myself. Once the exact length of the 40-year Cycle is determined, historians will have an extended road map. They can test those events of antiquity, which are regarded important by common consensus. Transition periods will only prove valid if the 40-year cycle lasts very nearly 14,610 days. Otherwise I suspect the periods will slide forward or backward in time. They may shift several weeks or months for each century.
Below you will find the 40-year cycle extended back more than 2,000 years in antiquity as a speculative exercise.
Far (17 years)
1753-1758 — European Colonization
Samuel Johnson's Dictionary first published. Earthquake hits Lisbon, Portugal—over 60,000 die. Seven Years' War begins as Britain and Prussia contend against France, Spain, Austria and Russia. This war will expose national holdings in North America, Asia and Africa. British commander, Robert Clive, defeats Nawwab of Bengal. This marks the beginning of British rule in India.
There are many important technologic innovations. Friedrich van Knauss develops a writing machine, a clunky prototype of the modern typewriter. Procopius Divis conducts experiments with a lightening conductor. M. Garvin designs an iron-girded bridge. William Cookworthy discovers a "kaolin' clay, which makes excellent porcelain. Joseph Black, a chemist, isolate carbon dioxide. Captain John Campbell designs a sextant that greatly improves a seaman's ability to acquire astronomical bearings. John Dollond builds the first achromatic refractor telescope.
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1736-1741
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1713-1718
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1696-1701
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1673-1678
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1656-1661
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1633-1638
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1616-1621
In 1619 Kepler unveils 3 Laws of Planetary Motion.
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1593-1598
Near (11 years)
Gale-force storms and more agile English ships defeat the great Spanish Armada.
Transition Period 1576-1581
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1553-1558
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1536-1541
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1513-1518
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1496-1501
In 1498 toothbrushes are used in China.
Far (17 years)
Columbus reaches West Indies, 1492.
Transition Period 1473-1478
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1456-1461
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1433-1438
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1416-1421
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1393-1398
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1376-1381
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1353-1358
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1336-1341
1337 marks the start of 100 Years War.
Far (17 years )
Transition Period 1313-1318
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1296-1301
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1273-1278
In 1274, Kublai Khan launches naval attack on Japan. His taskforce is defeated.
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1256-1261
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1233-1238
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1216-1221
Fresh from pillaging northern China, Genghis Khan leads his horse-archers west where they devastate Persia and make inroads to northern India.
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1193-1198
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1176-1181
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1153-1158
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1136-1141
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1113-1118
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1096-1101
In 1095 Pope Urban II calls for a Crusade to retake the Holy Land.
Far (17 years )
Transition Period 1073-1078
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1056-1061
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 1033-1038
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 1016-1021
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 993-998
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 976-981
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 953-958
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 936-941
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 913-918
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 896-901
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 873-878
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 856-861
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 833-838
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 816-821
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 793-798
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 776-781
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 753-758
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 736-741
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 713-718
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 696-701
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 673-678
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 656-661
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 633-638
Muslim influence spreads (634). Arabs conquer Jerusalem (637).
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 616-621
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 593-598
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 576-581
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 553-458
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 536-541
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 513-518
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 496-501
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 473-478
Last Roman Emperor of the West relinquishes his title.
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 456-461
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 433-438
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 416-421
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 393-398
Near (11 years )
Transition Period 376-381
In 378 Renegade horsemen wipe out Emperor Valens and six imperial legions. It spells the death knell for Pax Romana.
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 353-358
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 336-341
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 313-318
In 314 Constantine endorses Christianity. And later, he will make Christianity the official religion.
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 296-301
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 273-278
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 256-261
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 233-238
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 216-221
In 218 the degenerate Elagabalus becomes the Emperor. From this time forward, the imperial court grudges military affairs, and non-Romans are increasingly recruited for the legions.
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 193-198
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 176-181
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 153-158
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 136-141
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 113-118
117 AD marks the greatest territorial extent of Roman Empire.
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 96-101
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 73-78
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 56-61
Far (17 years)
Transition Period 33-38
Near (11 years)
Transition Period 16-21
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 8 BC - 3 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 25 BC - 20 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 48 BC - 43 BC
Julius Caesar becomes the undisputed dictator of Rome. After his assassination in 44 BC, the Roman Empire will be born.
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 65 BC - 60 BC
Julius Caesar, Pompeius and Crassus form a mutual pact. Wealthy men, backed by powerful armies, have proven they can dominate the debate club that is the Roman Senate.
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 88 BC - 83 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 105 BC - 100 BC
Marius defeats the German invaders. Marius gains great popular acclaim because he has allowed commoners to enlist in his legions. This gives the urban poor a sense of entitlement. The soldiers, after serving in the war, expect a reward of land. This drives a wedge between the wealthy landowners who make up the Senate and the commanders of the army.
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 128 BC.- 123 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 145 BC - 140 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 168 BC - 163 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 185 BC - 180 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 208 BC - 203 BC
2nd-Punic War. After numerous defeats at the hands of Hannibal, Romans adopt a more cautious approach suggested by Fabius Maximus. Meanwhile Scipio raises an army, departs from Italy and takes the war to Spain and Africa. Eventually, Scipio scores important victories over Hannibal's brother. The tide has turned. The Carthaginians beg Hannibal to return home where Scipio Africanus defeats him in 201 BC.
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 225 BC - 220 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 248 BC - 243 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 265 BC - 260 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 288 BC - 283 BC
Near (11 Years)
Transition Period 305 BC - 300 BC
Far (17 Years)
Transition Period 328 BC - 323 BC
Near (11 Years)
SOURCES
Max S. Metz, Ephemeredes 1890-1950. Neil F. Michelson, The American Ephemeris for the 20th Century (Revised Edition). Neil F. Michelson, (Revised by Rique Pottenger) The American Ephemeris for the 21st Century (2001-2050).
J. M. A. Danby, Fundamentals of Celestial Mechanics, (Revised 2nd-edition), Willmann-Bell, Inc., 1988.
Using my own shareware program that calculates daily heliocentric positions of Earth, Venus and Mercury. With special thanks to Jean Meeus, Astronomical Formulae for Calculators (4th-Edition, Revised & Enlarged), Willmann-Bell, Inc., 1988.
Wickipedia. World Almanac 1993-1996. Time Almanac 2001-2006. Kevin Desmond, A timetable of Inventions and Discoveries, M. Evans & Company, Inc., 1986.