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Blogs by Robert A. Mills
BOEHNER BLINKED
4/9/2011 5:25:50 AM
Now that Barack Obama seems genuinely pleased the GOP threat to shut down the federal government has been thwarted, I am willing to bet the farm that the president will win re-election in 2012 with at least 56% of the popular vote to the opposition party’s 44%, not counting any third party ballots.
According to Professor Ray C. Fair, the world class Yale economist who studies such things, Mr. Obama may receive as many as 400 electoral votes — and you betcha, that’s gonna be a landslide!
Of course, since I don’t own a farm (or much of anything else,) it’s a rather empty bet, but I have to admit, I like the odds.
A lot of it has to do with the economy, a study which 97.3% of Americans who will go to the polls know nothing about. Employment should pick up to the point where half a million jobs will be created every month, as the economy grows by about 5% in the next year and a half (not necessarily in the Deep South, sad to say.) That means the unemployment rate could range from a 7½% solution to around 10%; none of which can sensibly be blamed on (or credited to) the Obama administration, the Tea Partiers and left-wingers notwithstanding.
While I am comfortably retired, my wife was laid off during the ‘Big Crunch’ in January 2009 — even though her departure from the work force had little to do with the previous administration’s economic shenanigans. At least I don’t think so. Her layoff — like so many — was the result of the balloon busted by the blind affection the Bushwackers encouraged in the false belief that good times would be here forever.
Little Barack Obama was still kicking the slats out of his crib when our postwar bonanza was in its prime. We not only had a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage, we had a pot for all eight burners — including the ones we never used on our outdoor grills — and houses with three or more garages, including the ones attached to our summer homes and time-share havens!
The Wall Street Journal got a bunch of “experts” together recently, and they say the GDP will expand to almost 6%, with inflation holding at less than 4% — and that’s their forecast for only 2011! They said nothing about 2012. . . . Are happy days are here again?
Well, maybe, maybe not. But it’s a complicated mess, to be sure. This is being written while the Republicans and Democrats are still wrangling over ways to avoid a government shutdown (eventually did at the last moment) and while there are many who claim to be astute on the subject (they lie) the study of American economics is a discipline far more complex than, say, veterinarian medicine — not that vets have a dearth of animal species to study, but economists seem to have more national idiocyncrasies than ever to decipher. While there are over 500 unique breeds of dogs, there are 147,639 different bureaucratic anagrams ranging from the IRS to the NRA — and each one has to be considered when determining how to treat an ailing electorate (us, of course, a mere handful of which know the difference between a profit and a profit margin.)
Although I am as far removed from Wisconsin as I can get (barring an assignment to the Space Station,) my union woes continue to harass me. I once belonged to AFTRA (the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) the union in which one must retain membership in order to work in the broadcasting industry. I was a member in good standing for three decades, during which time I paid substantial dues.
I enjoyed membership for two basic reasons beyond the obvious ones: they told me I’d receive a pension when I retired, and I would be eligible for residence at the Will Rogers’s Retirement Home (if so desired.) When I left broadcasting for the greener pastures of Old Age, I applied to the national AFTRA headquarters for my pension.
“Your what? Who are you?”
It took a long time and much correspondence to realize what had happened. First off, I made the mistake of working for but one company during my entire career; secondly, I agreed to have my dues deducted from my salary and, ostensibly, paid over to AFTRA by my employer.
As it turned out, the monies were never forwarded — for one reason or another — and AFTRA has no record either of my 30 years service or me. My pension (and my accessibility to Will Rogers’s long-term care facility) does not exist and never did.
Who absconded with the loot? I don’t know and I no longer care (very much) although it would be nice to reap my rewards, my just due, so to speak. Everyone who could be culpable, however, is dead and gone, and even if I were to cast aspersions, I doubt if I could hit the right person(s). There probably were many eager hands in the cookie jar.
I will not impugn the legacy of my departed employers; they may have been as unknowing as I — although I suspect a character or two might have been hip to the scam. However, don’t ask me to prove anything; I can’t.
What I do know is that I cannot blame any of this on Barack Obama. Nor can I deny him a second term because a personal disaster has befallen me. After all, I will, in all likelihood, expire, as will all my children and their children, long before Social Security does, if it ever does (thank God for FDR and my monthly stipend!) So much for non-sequiturs.
Medicare and health care reform will be around for many years to come with or without Mr. Obama (but better with.) Like they keep telling us, we’re in good hands. Change horses in midstream? Don’t be an ass. Had we done that during World War II, dieses Stück würde auf Deutsch geschrieben. Or words to that effect.
Brian Cowen, then Irish Prime Minister, was speaking on another subject entirely when he said, back in November 2010, “There are occasions when the imperative of serving the national interest transcends other concerns, including party politics and personal concerns. This is one such occasion.”
No one thought so at the time, as they were busy throwing paint bombs at the man who will be king, but Cowen might just as well been lecturing Americans on the 2012 presidential election.
Of course, Brian Cowen got tossed in favor of Enda Kenny, but I’m sure that cannot be blamed on Obama. Or can it? (Bet they try!)
The question comes begging: Can Barack Obama be beaten? Of course. But by whom? Even FDR would be vulnerable this time around.
But therein lies the question. To paraphrase John Lennon, we don’t really know how good we got it, till we don’t have it anymore. Or maybe ‘Whatshisface’ said it better: “ . . . the undiscover’d country from whose bourn no traveler returns, puzzles the will.”
Yes, yes, Lennon was talking about one thing and ol’ Will quite another, but they could have been sitting around the tables down at Morrie’s with Ray C. Fair, yakking about the same thing. . . .Why is it always some Irishman or Brit who says the right thing at the right time?
The point is, who out there could replace Mr. Obama? — and even if they could, would we really want them to try? God help us, there’s even talk about Donald Trump! Who would he appoint Secretary of State? Ivanka or Gary Busey? For Chief of Staff: Don, Jr. or La Toya Jackson?
Examine today’s roster and tell me: is there anyone who qualifies; anyone you would actually hire to house-sit your possessions or baby-sit your kids? And forget about party allegiances and amateur ideologies. Get right down to the nitty-gritty and tell me — who’d be the better choice?
I thought so.
Copyright©2011 by Robert A. Mills
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